GUS: wages in September rose by 5.9%, employment keeps falling

Wages at companies are rising more slowly than economists had expected, and inflation is eating up an ever larger share of pay raises. The number of jobs has been declining for yet another month in a row.

The average monthly gross wage in the enterprise sector amounted to PLN 9,266.48 in September 2026. Statistics Poland released these figures on Tuesday, October 20. That is 5.9% more than a year earlier and 0.1% more than in August. The data cover companies employing at least 10 people. The amount also includes bonuses, awards and overtime pay.

The result is slightly weaker than forecasts, but sources differ in reporting market expectations. According to pulsHR.pl, economists had expected growth of 6%, while StockWatch.pl and Forsal.pl write about a consensus of 6.1%. Wage growth after taking inflation into account, which accelerated to 4.1% in September, amounted to 1.7% according to Monika Kurtek, chief economist at Bank Pocztowy. That is the lowest since August 2023. Other estimates put it at 1.6%.

Employment in the enterprise sector has been falling for another month in a row. In September it stood at about 6.4 million jobs. That is 0.1% less than in August and 0.8% less than a year earlier. Employment fell the most in mining and quarrying (down 9.1% year on year) and in professional, scientific and technical activities (down 2.1%). In accommodation and food service activities, employment rose by 2%. Monika Kurtek describes the labor market as slightly “asleep.” Among the reasons, she cites plant closures by foreign companies as well as investment in automation and artificial intelligence.

Analysts at ING Bank Śląski explain the decline in employment with structural factors. People retiring are not being fully replaced by new workers. They also note that the statistics do not cover smaller companies and poorly reflect changes in forms of employment. The decline across the whole economy is therefore smaller than these figures show. Analysts at mBank point out that higher energy prices are not yet translating into wages.

Against this backdrop, arrangements concerning the minimum wage are ongoing. The government has proposed that in 2027 it should rise from PLN 4,806 to PLN 4,950 gross, or by about 3%. Trade unions had demanded at least PLN 5,200. For companies that are setting wage budgets for 2027, the September data are the current point of reference in talks on pay raises.