WARC: global advertising will grow by 11.9% in 2026
The most money will go to social media, search engines and retail media, while Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are taking an ever larger share of budgets. Other forecasts, however, assume slower growth.
In its report “Global Ad Spend Forecast Q3 2026,” published on October 8, WARC Media raised its forecast for global advertising spending. This year, it is expected to rise by 11.9%, to $1.34 trillion. In June, WARC estimated growth at 8.9%. The growth factors it cites include investment in artificial intelligence, the Winter Olympic Games, the World Cup and the U.S. congressional elections.
This is an unusual time for advertising. Investment is accelerating even though many consumers are facing cost-of-living pressure and are more cautious about spending. This apparent contradiction reflects the increasingly uneven development of the economy, in which growth - especially driven by AI - benefits selected companies, sectors and consumer groups.
Social media advertising is growing the fastest: by 21.3%, to $394.6 billion. Retail media, meaning advertising on retailers’ platforms, is expected to gain 14.3% ($202.1 billion), and search engines 14.2% ($295.7 billion). These three channels account for 66.4% of global spending, and by 2028 their share is expected to reach 70%. Television will grow by 1.2%, to $176.2 billion.
Market concentration is also increasing. According to WARC, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta will account for 59.7% of ad spending outside China in 2026, or $659.6 billion, and 61.5% by 2028. The technology and electronics (up 20.7%), travel and transport (up 19.3%) and automotive (up 17.8%) sectors are increasing budgets the fastest.
Other forecasts are more cautious. In the June update of its “This Year Next Year” report, WPP Media assumes growth of 8.9%, to about $1.3 trillion, and from 2027 a slowdown in the growth rate of social media ad spending to single digits. Magna estimates market growth at 6.3%. The differences stem from methodology and the timing of updates. WARC also predicts that in 2027 the pace will slow to 8.4%, and escalating geopolitical tensions could weaken it further.
For companies planning budgets for 2027, this means that advertisers’ additional money is flowing mainly to the same few platforms, which may intensify competition for ad inventory on those platforms.